Ufc 264 play by play4/8/2023 ![]() With the underdog’s price just even or slightly better, it’s a dog-or-pass spot. That could create a small edge in a close decision. However, Kunitskaya has been busier on the mat. They’re striking stats are nearly identical, but Aldana likely gets the edge on the feet. ![]() Top 5 women’s bantamweights Irene Aldana and Yana Kunitskaya are perhaps the closest thing to a coin flip on the main card. Small prop play on Tuivasa by TKO at plus money. Not having to worry about a ground threat from Hardy will also help his cause and justifies laying a bit of juice. Tuivasa is accustomed to being the shorter-range fighter, but he still has faced down larger and more experienced opponents. But this will primarily be two head hunters swinging for the fences, and it’s the experience of Tuivasa that deserves the edge. ![]() That doesn’t mean Tuivasa won’t close distance, though, as he logs a fair bit of time controlling opponents against the cage. In their combined UFC careers, they’ve landed just a single takedown. When heavyweights Tai Tuivasa and Greg Hardy face off, don’t expect any takedowns. With the return on Burns as high as + 145 in some places, we’ll take a moneyline play on Gilbert Burns. Fight IQ and coaching will matter here, as Burns has a clear path to victory only if he can capitalize on takedowns early and often. However, if Burns chooses to stand and trade with Wonderboy, it could be a long and frustrating three rounds. Thompson has decent takedown defense, but if the fight is on the mat, defense will be his only hope just to survive the round.īefore earning a title shot, Burns had superior striking and wrestling against once-dominant former champion (and decorated wrestler) Tyron Woodley. But Burns does carry that potential, and should he initiate a ground attack, the asymmetry on the mat will be pronounced. On paper, Thompson is one of the best long-range strikers in the division, and Burns will have to be at his most aggressive to close the distance without taking too much damage on the way in. That could really cost him because Gilbert Burns presents a serious stylistic threat that could derail Thompson’s hopes of another title shot. Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson has hovered near the top of the division for years but got overlooked as the next challenger for the title. Given the support McGregor usually sees at the books, look for any temporary price bumps for Poirier near even money. Moneyline lean on Dustin Poirier, as long as his price is above -140. Ignoring out-of-cage storylines, the math is close to a coin flip, with just a slight edge to Poirier. Yet we didn’t see much of a ground game, where Poirier should have an even more pronounced advantage. It also seemed Poirier’s striking had evolved better than McGregor’s, with a finish between the two an inevitability the way they last fought. ![]() However, Poirier proved that taking the fight directly to McGregor can stifle some of the Irishman’s aggression and fight control. There’s tons of offensive potential in one cage, and not much difference in defensive statistics. Simply put, has McGregor done enough since their last fight to beat Poirier at his apparent career peak? We have two of the most accurate power strikers in the game, with a combined 25 knockdowns scored between them. Lightweights: Dustin Poirier -120 vs Conor McGregor + 100 And despite no titles being on the line, three main card matchups at UFC 264 will have clear title implications. It’s another McGregor mega-card in Las Vegas, and Saturday night will feel like a true pre-pandemic UFC weekend. (To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) ![]()
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